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On June 20, 2003 -- four years ago today -- Paul Krugman, who is not the world's smartest economist (and who I doubt sleeps at Holiday Inn), made the following prediction:

The big rise in the stock market is definitely telling us something. Bulls think it says the economy is about to take off. But I think it's a sign that America is still blowing bubbles — that a three-year bear market and the biggest corporate scandals in history haven't cured investors of irrational exuberance yet.

In short, the current surge in stocks looks like another bubble, one that will eventually burst.

The truth?  The S&P 500 stood at just under 1000.  Today, it stands at just over 1500.  On top of that, the Bush tax cuts (which had not even kicked in yet), lit a fire in the economy that has led to record tax collections over the past four years.

Do yourself a favor, and if you are active in the stock market, don't listen to Paul Krugman.

Krugman Lies!  Profits die!