Russia Suspends Convential Forces in Europe Treaty

Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty are reporting that the Russian Parliament has voted to suspend the Conventional Forces In Europe Treaty, a Cold War era agreement that limited the deployment of tanks and troops west of the Ural Mountains.

This is not good.

Despite the spin put out by NATO and Russia about CFE II, this is a bad development in European military affairs.  Russian President Putin has made it VERY clear that he wishes to reassert -- at a minimum -- Russian influence over Eastern Europe, which is part of the reason there are still Russian troops in Georgia and Moldova.

There are a couple of factors that Americans should keep in mind here:

1. NATO is a shell of its Cold War self.  Most nations in Europe -- with the exception of Britain -- spend just about 1% or less of GDP on their militaries.  No NATO nation possesses the heavy air or sea lift capabilities of the United States.  Not one.  Without US Seventh Army (or USAER), NATO couldn't defend itself against an invasion by cicadas.
2. Russia has already been flexing muscle.  Remember the Orange Revolution in the Ukraine in 04/05?  Victor Yuschenko was poisoned by elements of the former KGB (the organization where Putin as a senior commander in the good old days).  And Russia tried to intimidate the Ukraine in 05/06 by cutting off gas supplies during the winter months.
3. Russia is awash in hard currency due to the current spike in energy prices.  They can do a lot with a lot more money.
4. They are Iran's patron.  They are building the reactor.  They are arming the IRGC.
5. While NATO's Eastern Flank is dramatically more eastward than it was 20 years ago, those nations are still struggling to integrate into the NATO battlespace in terms of weaponry, strategy, doctrine, equipment, logistics, command and control, and more.  They have 50 years of failed Warsaw Pact doctrine to extricate themselves from, and that won't happen quickly.

We should not fool ourselves into thinking that Russia is some sort of ally in anything.  The "new" Russia under Putin is just new wine in an old wine bag.  The Bear may have been hibernating for a while, but he is awake now, and he is hungry. And just a little pissed.

And we better be thinking about that.