Gunpowder Chronicle posted on August 18, 2007 11:19 AM | Rating:
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Disturbing and comical news out of the Far East this week, as the Chi-Coms and the Russians have announced they are conducting joint exercises in CHEBARKUL TESTING RANGE, Russia. That is the disturbing news.
The comical news is that Russian Czar Vladimir Putin, in a bid to establish Russia as a global military power, has ordered Russian Tu-95 "Bear" bombers back in the air on their station-keeping Cold War-era patrols. The TU-95 is a prop-driven, slow-flying derelict that I could shoot down with a suped-up model rocket.
News of joint Chinese-Russian military exercises are very disturbing. While the two nations split in the 50's, their recent rapprochment is a harbinger of things to come for a number of reasons. First, China is energy hungry. The lack the internal reserves (in any type of fossil or nuclear fuel) to sustain their growing economy for any period of time. But Russian-- not far from the Chinese Manchurian border -- has excellent reserves, which they have neither the capital or nor the manpower to tap.
Both seem themselves as "great nations" held down by an incredibly successful United States, and want the power and prestige that comes with that "great nation" status. Even though both have undeserved seats on the United Nations Security council, they want to play a far greater role in world affairs. In particular, China wants to dominate the South China sea area (because of energy reserves there) and diminish US influence in the Southwest Pacific area.
Russia, on the other hand, wants to reclaim hegemony over the former Soviet Central Asian Republics. It's patronage of Iran and Syria -- and the myriad terrorist groups they harbor -- are a direct thrust at that. Should the US succeed in building anything remotely resembling a "peaceful" Iraq-- even on a Jordanian model -- that would serve notice on places like Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan that they don't need the patronage of the Russian Bear.
And then there is Eastern Europe, which has been enthusiastic and emphatic in its embrace of the United States and NATO. This is ultimately humiliating to former KGB-henchman Putin, and he wants to bring those nations -- if not back into a Warsaw Pact, then at least into a respectful fear of the Bear Claw. Putins games with natural gas supplies for Ukraine this past winter was only a harbiner of things to come.
An alliance between these two historically tyranical powers would constitute a new danger for the US, and we should be wary. While China lacks the capability of heavy sea-lift that would be required to mount any sort of invasion (say of Taiwan, the Phillipines, or Vietnam), they do possess super-quiet diesel electric subs that could disrupt US fleet operations. If you were to combine Chinese anti-satellite capabilities (recently demonstrated) with Russian space capabilities, our technology edge for in-theater command control could be severely compromised.
What this ultimately means for the US is that we cannot let our guard down. The Cold War never really ended-- it just thawed a little and changed. Those Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Quds Forces we are facing in Iraq are paid for lock, stock, and barrel by the Chinese and Russian governments. And just because we buy a lot of junk from China does not mean they will not work to knock us down a notch.