Niall Ferguson, a noted British author, spreads Fear, Uncertainity and Doubt over at The Telegraph while worshiping at the alter of the oft-discredited Malthus. Ferguson, in traditional modern British style, forgets the influence of markets (good and bad) and the results of well-intentioned but stupid policies on the part of government in claiming that our bigger worry should be about grain, not oil.
Back in the late 18th century, Malthus had hypothesized that while human population could grow geometrically, food supplies could only grow arithmetically, and thus, burgeoning population growth would eventually cause massive starvation and famine. The only problem: it never happened. What has happened is that global politics has created situations of starvation and famine. With the lone exception of the Irish Potato Famine -- which was really the result of extremely poor agriculture practices and the indifference of land-owning Protestants -- nearly every famine since the time of Malthus has been started or exaggerated by political factors. The four largest famines in the 20th century -- Darfur (right now), Ethiopia/Eritrea (1980s), Cambodia (1970s), and Ukraine (1930s) were all the products of evil political policies and goals targeted at either destroying a particular property group or severely limiting its growth.
Since Malthus, world wide efficiency in agriculture has nearly quadrupled, even as more land has been pulled out of productive agricultural use. Moreover, technology advances have severely increased efficiency. The greatest contribution was the internal combustion engine. The move to mechanical horsepower away from actual "horse" power freed up fifty percent of farmland in the United States for food production. Before the 1940s, almost 1/2 of farmland was consumed just to provide sustenance and bedding for draft animals. That need no longer exists.
Moreover, better genetics and technology and practices have dramatically increased yields. Dwarf wheat saved India and Bangledesh in the 70s, as the wheat was now able to stand up to heavy rain. Corn production has increase in terms of kernels per ear, ear per stalk, and stalk per acre. Oats, barley, sorghum, and wheat are all now much more disease resistant and drought resistant. It has been estimated that the United States and Canada in the 1980s produced more cereal grain for foodstuffs than the entire rest of the world combined.
Yet prices ARE rising, causing not a shortage in food supplies, but a shortage of affordable food supplies. There is a big difference. But what is the cause? Are we running out of food? No, we are running out of common sense, as we allow sense-less, stupid, and venal politicians to attempt to control the market rather than free market choices.
For example:
1) Protectionism prevents the free-flow of products from high-supply areas to low-supply areas. See the current farm bill, which hopefully the President will veto. As a result, food stuff oversupplies in certain areas cannot mitigate shortages in other areas.
2) Price controls. Want to know why a gallon of milk costs over $3.00 in Maryland and Pennsylvania? Blame the United States Congres and the Northeast Milk Compact, which established a price floor for milk. This kep ineffiicent producers in the market, and forced more efficient producers out. Combined with #3, the cost of milk may hit $4 per gallon this winter.
3) Stupid energy policies in United States. Again, blame the politicians who think that corn-based ethanol is the salvation to energy independence. Corn is one of the most used foodstuffs. It is the basis of High Fructose Corn Syrup (#1 sweetener and #1 additive after water), filler for bread products, the #1 component in feed, and the basis of all ethanol produced in the US. Since there is a 50% tarrif on non-US produced ethanol, there is NO incentive to important cheaper (and more effiicent) cellulosic ethanol from countries like Brazil. The current shortage in corn is causing skyrocketing prices, even as more acres this year were dedicated to corn production than ever before in the US.
4) Stupid ideological battles without basis in scientific fact, like the ban on genetically modified crops and seed. The Gates Foundation is one of the biggest promoters of this policy, which only serves to hurt poorer nations. The European Union ban on importing genetically modified food stuffs basically prevents the entire continent of Africa from building a successful, disease and drought resistant agriculture industry.
5) Poor growth and property tax policies in the United States which basically push family farms out of production, and into a crop of McMansions. Or, into large factory-farms that are environmentally questionable, causing all sorts of other issues.
So what's my point? Ferguson completely misses the issue on food production. The problem is NOT the lack of land, or the lack of food. The problem is POOR leadership and HORRIBLE policy decisions that neglect to take advantage of, or recognize the value of, free market choices. In fact, in many cases, it is a complete rejection of free market capitalism, and an idea toward top-down production controls that drives these decisions.
In other words, it is the agenda of leftist Democrats and their fellow-traveling socialists and communists that drive this issue.
Not Malthus.
The next time you are in the grocery store, and you pay $3.50 for that gallon of milk, or $3.99 for that box of cornflakes, remember who cause those prices. It wasn't your family farmer.